Quarter 4 2025 – Calm returns, cautious optimism prevails
After a volatile first half of the year, financial markets gained more stability in the second half of 2025. Uncertainty decreased, central bank policy became clearer, and investors refocused on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings. The calm that returned in November and December made Q4 a flat but stabilizing final phase of the stock market year.
Equities continued to perform well worldwide. Over the whole of 2025, the MSCI World AC index rose by approximately 19% in US dollars, although the sharp weakening of the dollar, by around 12% against the euro, significantly reduced returns for European investors.
Technology stabilizes, gold remains popular
After strong rallies earlier in the year, the technology sector entered calmer waters. Among the major US tech companies, Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia stood out in 2025, while Chinese technology stocks corrected sharply in the fourth quarter.
The monetary outlook remained supportive. In December, the Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50–3.75%. The ECB kept its rate stable at 2.0%, while inflation in the eurozone was virtually on target. Japan was the only exception, with a cautious rise in interest rates.
Risk-averse investments recorded modest price gains of around 1.5% on average in 2025, aided by an effective interest rate of around 3¼%.
On the geopolitical front, the market remained remarkably insensitive to tensions. The US blockade of Venezuela and ongoing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine did not cause any major shocks on the energy or stock markets. However, gold once again played a prominent role: precious metals served as a safe haven and benefited from purchases by central banks. Gold rose by more than 45% in dollar terms in 2025.
Outlook: growth continues, risks remain
The economic outlook for 2026 appears positive. Consumer spending remains steady, inflation is largely under control, and investments in infrastructure and defense are supporting growth, particularly in Europe.
Interest rates in the United States are on a downward trend, while further weakening of the dollar against the euro is considered likely. This is providing support for global stock markets. The technology sector, especially applications involving artificial intelligence, remains an important driver, with structural growth prospects seen as solid.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions, trade policy, and political uncertainties remain a potential source of volatility. This makes the investment climate favorable but fragile: opportunities and risks remain closely intertwined.
ProfitShield: controlled growth in a stabilizing market
In this environment, ProfitShield achieved a return of +1.81% in the fourth quarter of 2025. For the full year, the result was +8.1%.
ProfitShield is designed as a system that gives investors exposure to stock markets, but with built-in protection against sharp declines. This is achieved through so-called Buffer ETFs: investment instruments that offer a predetermined level of protection against price losses in exchange for a limited upside return. The aim is not to chase maximum profits in euphoric markets, but to create a more stable performance over the entire cycle and limit large drawdowns.
This approach really came into its own in a year like 2025, with sharp currency movements, significant sector rotations, and geopolitical noise. While stock markets sometimes changed direction abruptly during the year, ProfitShield's return pattern remained moderate and controlled.
The fourth quarter was consistent with this picture. While equities consolidated and bond markets once again became sensitive to interest rate movements, ProfitShield delivered a positive but modest quarterly result, in line with a strategy that focuses explicitly on capital preservation and risk management.
With an annual return of 8.1% in an environment dominated by geopolitical uncertainties, ProfitShield underscored its role as a stabilizing building block within broader portfolios. Less dependent on market sentiment and focused on consistency across different market regimes.