Dear Investor,
I concluded last month's overview with "Cyclically speaking, March is a weaker month of the year. The saying goes, 'March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb.' The question that can be asked here is, 'Does this also apply to the coming trading month?'"
The answer is now known. The SP-500 index closed March with a loss of -5.8%. ESBH closed the month with a loss of -4.54%. For the entire year, there is a loss of -7.70%.
ESBH has been less than 100% invested for some time now. The risk management system determines the position size. Depending on the state of the various markets, the position size is recalculated every week. In this case, the system is only invested for about a third.
Buy and Hold means something like "buy and hold." That is more or less what the system does, with the proviso that position sizes are adjusted to circumstances.
Now the stock markets are falling and losses are being incurred, but during major stock market declines there are always periods of recovery and even a single day when the bottom is reached or will be reached. Even then, the system remains invested and will benefit from the upward periods.
April did not start strongly at all, and technically speaking, it could go even lower, but for all we know, the bottom could be in place today. We will find out on May 1.
Sincerely,
Henry van Ginkel