Dear Investor,
The past month has been a dynamic period on the US stock markets. The major indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, showed mixed results after a strong quarter. Investors focused on inflation figures, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical developments. Inflation concerns tempered expectations for interest rate cuts, while the Federal Reserve estimated a 22.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the end of July. Despite uncertainties surrounding trade agreements and tariffs, partly due to the approaching July 9 deadline, Wall Street remained resilient. The S&P 500 index even reached a new record high, driven by optimism in the technology sector. Oil stocks were under pressure due to a slight decline in oil futures, while the dollar continued to weaken.
The S&P 500 index rose to a new record high in June with a gain of 4.96%. E.S. Stock Trading also reached a new record high last month with a gain of 6.07%. Since January 1, the gain stands at 6.33%.
Broadcom Inc was the biggest winner in June. CrowdStrike Holdings Inc was the only (small) loser this month.
First half of 2025
The first half of 2025 was a rollercoaster ride for the US stock markets, characterized by volatility, geopolitical tensions, and economic shifts. Below, we look back on the most important developments.
The year began with optimism after a strong 2024, in which the S&P 500 reached record highs, driven by technology stocks and AI enthusiasm. However, in the first quarter, the mood changed. The US economy contracted by 0.3%, the first contraction in three years, partly due to the impact of new import tariffs under President Trump. Companies imported goods en masse before the tariffs took effect, causing imports to rise by 41%, but the stock markets opened in the red after these figures were released. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq lost ground as investors grappled with concerns about inflation and a possible recession.
Markets rebounded in the second quarter. Despite all the concerns mentioned above, import tariffs, and geopolitical tensions, Wall Street ended a strong first half of the year, with the S&P 500 reaching a new record high.
ESST had a somewhat difficult first two months of the year. While the S&P 500 fell by around 20% in the first quarter, ESST held up reasonably well, partly due to the signal to exit the market completely in March.
Because a picture says more than words. Below is a graph showing ESST's performance.
This Friday, the stock exchange will be closed due to the Fourth of July celebrations.
For those going on vacation, we wish you a wonderful holiday.
Kind regards.
Henry van Ginkel