2025 has been a real rollercoaster ride so far. Six months in which economic factors have barely played a role. War, whether real wars or trade wars, has been the determining factor. And that makes it difficult to analyze how companies are responding. It is mainly a period to sit tight. Don't sell when the bad news prevails, and don't sell too quickly when the good news prevails. Because it can go deeper than you would expect, but it can also go higher than you would expect.
My only purchase was Palantir at $67. That was a good decision. The stock closed at $130 in June (although it had been $144 a few days earlier).
The only sale was CRM (Salesforce) at $296. And that was also a good decision, as the share price is now $272.
The decline of the dollar was, of course, detrimental to the portfolio. It fell from 1.03 to 1.17 against the euro. That represents a 12% loss in returns. Nevertheless, I can still be satisfied with a return of +7.23% for the first half of 2025.
In normal years, the high often occurs between mid-July and mid-August. This is followed by a decline until mid-November. But whether that will happen this year remains to be seen. We are at a critical point. The markets have pretty much returned to where they were before Trump's antics. This could well be the best we can hope for, as the outlook has not really improved. But it is also possible that we will see another jump upwards due to the fact that many investors sold during the dip and are now hesitant to re-enter the market.
My idea is to take some profits in the coming month if possible. We also have about 25% cash at the moment. I only want to re-enter the market when there is another correction.
It was a hectic six months in which you had to keep your emotions in check. It was also a bit sleep-inducing because there wasn't much trading going on. I'm looking forward to the next six months. If it yields another 7.23%, I can look back on a good year. We'll see. If you are interested in following my portfolio, you are of course welcome to do so.
Greetings,
Ruud Hoefnagels