Dear investors,
November was a good month for the AEX, with the index gaining 0.86%.
RVM Strategy was +0.52%, RVM Retirement +4.02%, and RVM Analysis +2.86%.
FINALLY: EDWIN VANDAMME
First of all: on October 7 this year, investment specialist Edwin Vandamme passed away in Kortrijk, Belgium. I only recently heard this news. Edwin was not only an interesting, idiosyncratic stock market analyst, but also an amiable person and honest, something that is not a given in the investment world. We remember him fondly.
Now let's move on to the investment month.
November was a special month
The US elections were decisive in November. We chose not to take short-term positions in the market around the time of the vote. The statistical example was Brexit; the vote in Great Britain in 2016 led to a very unexpected result and an equally unexpected overnight decline. In hindsight, Trump's victory did not reveal anything that was unexpected within our system, but as mentioned, that is hindsight.
Being out of the market around the elections had a slightly negative impact on our results for the month of November.
RVM RETIREMENT SHOWED THE STRONGEST PERFORMANCE
In November, RVM Retirement benefited from favorable trends in fixed assets, which now account for 45% of the total portfolio due to increases in value in recent years. This is still acceptable, but we are monitoring the situation closely. New followers must be able to participate fully and should not have too large a portion of their portfolio invested in fixed assets after purchasing fixed positions.
As the first followers of both RVM Retirement and RVM Strategy, we now follow more factors than we did at the start; this is also a way for longer-term followers to keep money in the system and balance positions; reinvest profits and participate with more factors.
RVM STRATEGY
RVM Strategy was also positive in November. This system remains the basis for us, with 71 months of trading to date, 65 of which have been positive. Earlier this year, we deviated from the core system, which ultimately led to a less favorable outcome, but it was a close call—it could have been the best year ever.
This deserves a little more explanation.
In the case of RVM Strategy (and also RVM Retirement), the longer-term methodology was clear; from June onwards, the methodology indicated that the AEX was facing a larger decline. There were also downward targets associated with this. A decline of 8 to 10% was included in this.
The aggressive short positions we took in June were not successful enough for our liking, so we decided at the end of July not to continue the strategy. That was the biggest mistake of the year. The decline came two weeks later and it was a real flash crash. Had we continued the original position, 2024 would have been the best year ever for RVM Strategy and RVM Retirement.
The conclusion is therefore that the trading strategy was correct and that we should have been more patient. Data is the most important factor in our system, and in 2024 a lot of new data was added, which will be very useful for our strategy in the coming years.
RVM ANALYSIS
RVM Analysis has a larger portfolio than the other systems. The positions of RVM Strategy and RVM Retirement are also part of this portfolio, but there is (much) more. Due to enormous increases in value of some long-term positions here, these positions have become very dominant, and we will certainly be doing some rebalancing, but not at this moment.
For your information, RVM Analysis has only recently been added to what is available to you on Systems2follow, but the system has been running for subscribers elsewhere since 2007, making it by far the oldest methodology. Significant changes in the long-term portfolios took place in 2012. The best investment at that time is now +800% higher, and earlier this year it was +1,100% higher.
People who are getting on board now don't have this increase in value in their backpacks, of course, but long-term subscribers do. But what this tells you is that twelve years ago, we were rightly optimistic about certain investments.
Another essential factor was not to focus too much on long-term positions. The main driver for the RVM Analyse portfolio was a position that sometimes yielded no particular return for four years. That's how it goes, even with a position that ultimately rose by +1,100%. The essence remains a long-term vision and a fundamental view of an underlying value. Even four years of price formation means nothing in that light. Keep that in mind. A hint of the reason behind this is perhaps that we started as investment advisors in 2005 because we expected a major crisis based on a lot of data available at the time. It was very interesting to see whether the vision that 2000-2003 was only a prelude to a bigger crisis would come true.
Things finally started to turn around in 2007, and 2009 did indeed see a lower bottom than in 2003. We were proven right.
In 2012, there was a new cyclical outlook, which indicated that there was a certain degree of security for investments, especially investments in stocks, for the longer term.
We were proven right in this regard as well; we were allowed to take long-term risks in 2012, and that has become apparent.
The above is mentioned only so that you understand that we have a very short-term system, a medium-term system, a long-term system, and a very long-term system.
So we look at four timeframes at RVM Analysis.
CLOSED POSITIONS IN 2024 AT RVM ANALYSIS
In terms of closed positions, RVM Analysis has been up 16.57% since January 1, 2024, and several open positions are also higher this year.
You won't see that reflected since the system is listed on Systems2Follow, because it wasn't introduced on January 1, 2024, but rather at the peak of the market in Europe.
The fact remains that the return on closed positions here this year is higher than for RVM Retirement and RVM Strategy in 2024.
SUBSCRIBE TO OUR SYSTEMS; MANY HAVE GONE BEFORE YOU
If you are not yet a follower of RVM Strategy, RVM Retirement, or RVM Analysis, you are most welcome to join us!
Most investors who ever decided to follow have never left.
Sincerely,
On behalf of Van Megen Systematic Trading,
Ruud van Megen