Once again, it was a messy week. People feared the inflation figures that would come in the US on Wednesday and the consultations with Putin. Last week we closed at 788.4. On Monday, as expected, there was some recovery to 792 - against the main trend line B - and then things went wrong. A fall of 20 points and a closing at 773. The rest of the week was a mess and Friday we closed at 783.5. So, 5 points down this week.
Inflation in the US was very high on Wednesday but not higher than expected. The FED promised to be cautious and the consultations with Putin came to nothing.
The AEX tried to get into the big gap 800 - 787 this week but did not get far. We closed the week below the gap and that is a sign of weakness. The AEX collided with trend line B and that too is a sign of weakness. Otherwise, things look reasonable. The indicators are flat, the big picture is still a bullish one and the MA200 remains bullish. Of concern is the possible head-and-shoulders pattern that seems to be developing above the neckline at 750.
AEX (weekly chart):
Moderate. A negative candle this week. Trend line B formed resistance this week, the AEX didn't get above it. With the previous candle, this could be a top pattern, but: this week's candle has a long tail at the bottom: "I don't want to fall."
The indicators are reasonable, the MACD just in the green but declining. So, no panic, just some correction and sideways stuff. We need some pressure off the kettle.
Philips:
Philips issued a profit warning this week and fell sharply. The picture has been chaotic since 2017. It did rise to a top at 51 in April 2021, but not a nice trend increase. At the end of 2021, the trend line A around 40 and then down in November 2021.
Philips is looking for support at the 29.8 level and at the 28.45 level which has been support/resistance since 2013. The pressure on 28.45 remains for now, the indicators are bad. There is no reason to buy now. Buying is possible only after a clear bottom and then a movement up. Actually, there are enough better shares. Philips is really worth buying only above line A.
ASMI:
ASMI tries to stay in the uptrend. This week has been chaotic and exciting. The indicators are reasonable: it is possible, but it is still exciting.
BESI:
Besi is flying back and forth in the AA2 uptrend, in step with the Nasdaq. This week I expected lower, but that did not happen. Line A is holding so far. An earlier breakout above 80.3 took us to A2 but there was trend channel resistance. Besi breaks above 80,3 again and the indicators seem to be turning upwards. It looks like Besi wants to go to A2 again.
DOW JONES:
The DOW was adrift this week and closed slightly lower. The DOW is in good shape, the indicators are fairly good and the DOW remains at a high.
Nasdaq 100:
The Nasdaq continued its way south after the top pattern completed last week. On the way south, support was quickly found at 15,140 (and again quite precisely). The Nasdaq is now looking for its way into the 15,560 - 15,720 zone but that will be difficult. The MACD is well green but everything is now falling. You would expect the support 15,140 to be sought again. This is also evident if you look at individual tech stocks: most are falling.
Bitcoin:
A little higher this week. The candles are trying to bottom out a bit but the indicators are in bad shape. The MACD is on its way to negative. Expectations are that the support at 38,200 will be found.
Forecast: The markets are clearly searching. But the picture is not very bad. More unsettled than bad. Actually, I am waiting for the turn up but at the moment the expectation is: sideways.
Good luck with your investments in the coming week!
- Franciscus Roorda
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