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The AEX went lower on Monday, as expected, and at 755 came close to the real bottom at 750. In this zone the AEX found support from this bottom, from the MA200 and from line C2. With the support holding, investors got excited again on Tuesday. The rest of the week the AEX shot up, through the resistance at 778, and yes, through the trend line B. With this the AEX tries to get back into the main trend. I certainly did not expect this so soon.
If the AEX manages to stay in the main trend, we will have had a false break-out to the downside and can now even expect a break-out to the upside.
On Friday, all markets were closed but the AEX was open. Obviously, a weak day and we clearly felt the resistance of line C and the gap at 794/796 on Friday, which has already provided some resistance.
Technically, the condition of the daily chart is clear: the AEX is trying to recover from the blows. The AEX wants to go up again, but it has a lot of mess to clean up. Yes, the Stochastic - of which I wrote last week: "it looks like the worst is over" - is now clearly turning upwards. But the MACD is clearly still weak, the RSI neutral and the AEX has to clear a lot of resistance: line C, the heavy gap 794/796, then line D, resistance 809, the gap 810/815 and resistance 818. Enough? Just face it: it is not going to be easy.
The AEX went lower on Monday, as expected, and at 755 came close to the real bottom at 750. In the zone the AEX found support from this bottom, from the MA200 and from line C2. With the support holding, investors got excited again on Tuesday. The rest of the week the AEX shot up, through the resistance at 778, and yes, through the trendline B. With this the AEX tries to get back into the main trend. I certainly did not expect this so soon.
If the AEX manages to stay in the main trend, we will have had a false break-out to the downside and can now even expect a break-out to the upside.
On Friday, all markets were closed but the AEX was open. Obviously a weak day and we clearly felt the resistance of line C and the gap at 794/796 on Friday.
Technically, the condition of the daily chart is clear: the AEX is trying to recover from the blows. The AEX wants to go up again, but it has a lot of mess to clean up. Yes, the Stochastic - of which I wrote last week: "it looks as if the Stochastic has had its day" - is now clearly turning upwards. But the MACD is still weak, the RSI is neutral and the AEX has to clear a lot of resistance: line C, the heavy gap 794/796, then line D, resistance 809, the gap 810/815 and resistance 818. Enough? Go figure: it's not going to be easy.
All indicators seem to be preparing for the upward turn. 34.880 was confirmed as support this week.
DeNasdaq is confused. Back and forth for the last four weeks. Support 15,720 again confirmed. The indicators seem to want to turn upwards here too. I will not be surprised if next week is quietly positive and after January 1 it is a blast.
Interest rates continue to move perfectly sideways. Bund very high, interest very low.
Fighting for line Z for five weeks. MACD very low, rest of indicators also weak. Pressure on Z remains high, it is exciting. With the MACD, I suspect that Z will break down.
The chart is from Thursday, bitcoin now stands at 50,900. Hmm. In the chart, the 45,100 clearly seems to be holding and then we have a bottom, but the indicators are weak (MACD in positive zone) and again: a possible head-shoulder pattern is developing in the circle. I still expect a test of the 45.100 level.
The US is good - the S&P 500 returned to its top level this week - and the AEX wants to go higher. The course does not look easy, that is for sure. We will follow it step by step. A calm move higher next week is most likely.
Good luck with your investments in the coming week!