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After a collapse in the US last Friday evening, the AEX opened sharply lower last Monday. Monday was a unique day: ALL fell. And hard. I study a few hundred ETFs but I have never seen this. Of course I have seen many falls, and worse, but it is not usual for shares and bonds to fall at the same time on the stock exchange. But it did not stop there. Real estate also went down, energy also, industry also, healthcare also. And tech the hardest.
Besides these sectors, there are the funds that are actively managed by a manager. Often with wonderful names like wide moath, weighted volume, global select etc. All considerably lower.
So there doesn't seem to be a refuge for a while and we have to be careful. We also had to close many funds at a lower price on Monday. Last year everything was rising, this year has been difficult so far. Our portfolio got off to a flying start at the start of the war because we got into commodities on time and they went through the roof. We reached a high of 15%. Then the commodities fell back from their boiling point and after a dip to 9% the portfolio moved around 12% for weeks.
In March, we ended up at 12.3% and now we are at 10.6%. Anything below 15% feels like a "loss" to me, so of course I am looking for opportunities to reach that again. But the system does not see many buy signals, that is obvious. So just stay calm, wait and count the blessings. A plus of 10.6% in these circumstances - we can be satisfied with it.
Sectors that have fallen somewhat but remain at high levels are real estate, cereals and high dividends. Perhaps there will be buy signals again. All other sectors are now low and are starting to show bottoms here and there. There will certainly be buy signals. But these will be signals in a chart that has taken a hit. That is more exciting than a chart that only seems to want to go up.
On Friday, we bought new positions. But of course these are only visible to the followers of this portfolio.
Kind regards,
Franciscus Roorda.