We had a good month, with a new all-time high for the system every week. It was also a good month for the AEX, but there are some caveats.
The investment world is currently somewhat upside down. AI investments are bizarrely large and are driving some funds toward enormous expectations, but also enormous profits.
This leads outsiders to think that things are going well on the stock markets. That is only partly true.
Many sectors are lagging behind, and there are plenty of global market leaders trading well below their all-time highs.
Some sectors are even 'completely on the ground'.
Other sectors, such as banking and insurance, which are not normally known for long-term stable investments, are performing exceptionally well in 2025.
Steel producers, such as Arcelor Mittal within the AEX, are also performing very well in the current investment climate.
Arcelor Mittal is rarely found in portfolios due to its long-term underperformance, but in 2025 it suddenly becomes a great investment.
MOST OF IT CAN BE EXPLAINED BY THE A.I. HYPE
Not only are investments in chips and related products substantial, but everything necessary for the AI revolution is also in place.
Steel is needed for the construction of data centers.
Financials are expected to benefit from AI-driven software solutions.
Energy companies are benefiting from the expected huge demand for energy.
However, these are mostly expectations and not always proven profit figures, so we will have to wait and see.
TRADING IN OCTOBER
As already mentioned, it went very well, even though Trump caused a bizarre decline in the meantime, which resulted in a very low AEX, especially after trading hours on a Friday.
However, Trump's import tariff threat against China was retracted over the weekend and the price did not return to its low point.
This shows once again how corrupt the current trading environment is.
American insiders of the Trump regime have been able to take full advantage of the decline, which was manipulated via a tweet.
The fact that this has become normal is too bizarre for words.
But we have to make do with it.
WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS?
Our price range for the AEX index calculated on January 1, 2025, was fully achieved on October 31.
In other words, higher prices are possible, of course, but they are then a kind of bonus; in that case, they fall outside the calculated potential.
If we look beyond 2025, we have and maintain higher calculated price targets for the AEX.
This does not play a decisive role in our strategy, but it does give us a good idea of the further possibilities for the stock markets in 2025 and especially 2026.
Sincerely,
Ruud van Megen