Bekijk nu ons webinar over ES Small Cap en leer hoe je kunt beleggen in Amerikaanse Small Cap aandelen.
Dear investors,
The month of May was negative for the AEX, with a decline in value of - 1.27%.
RVM Strategy did + 0.29 % and RVM Retirement + 3.65 %.
Both systems posted new all time highs, where the AEX index posted - 9.74 % below the 2021 All Time High.
THE COURSE IN MAY
The stock market month started off in a minor way, but recovered and it looked to be a positive month for the AEX, until the sell button was pressed in the last three trading days of the month. People trying to trade on a trend on the index will not have had a good hold, essentially the AEX has been in what is called a trading range for some time.
THE MONTH OF JUNE
At the time of writing this update, on June 16, we are already halfway through the month and it has been positive so far. Although the trend in the stock markets is only partly important to our systems, every day we look at our parameters and create the scenarios. Right now, June 16, that leads to the perception that there is an uptrend on the AEX index, which is in a later phase, i.e. we should expect a cycle stop to be placed sometime in the coming weeks. This is true for the AEX as well as the Dax and the S&P 500.
After the June 15 ECB rate hike, while the Fed paused, we saw a big jump up for the euro against the dollar. This is unfavorable for investors in Euroland.
The year 2023 is unfavorable so far in terms of this factor anyway. Whereas in 2022 the rising dollar was positive for European investors holding interests in dollars, so far in 2023 this factor is slightly negative.
Looking over a very long term, there is actually no trend in Euro/Dollar. From 2008 onwards the dollar has on balance strengthened, but if we look a little further back to when the euro was introduced in the last century, we see little or no movement. So nothing has come of doomsday predictions for both dollar and euro for now, both currencies keep each other in balance.
ANOTHER GOOD MONTH FOR RVM RETIREMENT
RVM Retirement has a good return in 2023, also May was again fine. Very nice is that.
However, anyone who regularly reads my updates on this site knows that we do not attach much importance to this.
By this is meant: the investment policy does not hang on a monthly performance or even a yearly performance. And further, it's about 10 years rather than 3 years, as far as the performance of our fixed interests is concerned.
As indicated earlier, 2022 was precisely the peak year. On balance, the fixed holdings decreased in value. As you read above, as long as our parameters continued to indicate that those holdings could be held, that was not that important to us.
But RVM Retirement's cash flow was outstanding in 2022 thanks to the successes of its short-term momentum strategy, and that is essentially what matters.
That good cash flow has been the basis for the system's good performance in 2023.
On the contrary, so far in 2023 we have a relatively weak performance of the momentum strategy. We are not worried about that (yet), because there is little we can do about it. Every stock market period is different, and we have to be content with the conditions we find. This does not change our risk management or our algorithmic calculations.
SUBSCRIBE TO OUR SYSTEMS; MANY HAVE GONE BEFORE YOU!
If you are not yet a follower of RVM Strategy or RVM Retirement, you are welcome!
We do not expect the return picture in the coming years to differ much from the past four years.
Sincerely,
On behalf of Van Megen Systematic Trading,
Ruud van Megen