February was another weak month on the stock exchanges. The AEX index in Amsterdam lost -3,37%.
RVM Strategy remained profitable, with +0.88%, and thus again showed a good outperformance of the market.
RVM Retirement achieved -2.57%; the momentum strategy here is the same as with RVM Strategy and it was therefore profitable, but Retirement also has a second 'leg' of the strategy. This second leg contains a number of investments chosen for the very long term. There are a number of criteria for these investments. If these criteria no longer apply, the interests must be sold. In February, there was no reason to do so.
Of course, we would like to see the fixed positions at RVM Retirement increase in value within each timeframe, but that is impossible. So we don't have that expectation.
We are particularly pleased that so far in 2022 these fixed interests are better than the market as a whole.
The war in Ukraine is a terrible thing. War always is. On European soil, we remember the war in the Balkans, with the drama of Screbrenica. That war has an aftermath that continues to this day. But the civil war in the former Yugoslavia did not have a major negative impact on world markets.
So far, the attack on Ukraine has. This is mainly because it now involves one of the world's great power blocs, Russia. And this nuclear power is now trying to change the borders of a sovereign country, which apparently has to be annexed. It is all very intense and it is understandable that world trade is now full of uncertainties.
As this preview is being written, it is already 5 March 2022, heavy economic sanctions have been imposed on Russia, and many Western companies are leaving that country.
How the conflict will further develop is uncertain, and what it will mean for the stock markets as well. At RVM Systematic Trading we have mixed expectations for the month of March. On the one hand, a strong recovery is expected in March, but this expectation is accompanied by the fact that this recovery is most likely to be corrective in this phase of the stock market cycle, and that we should expect another attack on the bottom thereafter.
So on balance, we think March will be another negative month for the AEX. As always, you are welcome to follow RVM Strategy and/or RVM Retirement. Many have gone before you!
Sincerely,
Ruud van Megen