February was slightly positive for the AEX, with an increase in value of + 1.04%.
RVM Strategy did + 0.98% and RVM Retirement + 2.02%.
As a result, both systems were at new all-time highs, unlike indices such as the AEX or the S&P 500.
THE COURSE SO FAR IN MARCH
So February's results were good, but what about the so far weak month of March, in the stock markets?
So far for the systems there is nothing wrong, there are the usual slightly positive results. Also with the long-term positions at RVM Retirement. The turmoil in the financial markets has brought the indices down, but not our long-term positions at the moment. How long the turmoil will continue and whether more problem cases will follow will be seen.
Although the future cannot be predicted, we remain relatively positive for now, there are no signs (yet) that what is happening now is in any way comparable to the 2008 crisis. To make a proper comparison, we need to go further back, to the times of Paul Volcker as chairman of the Fed, who implemented very heavy interest rate hikes in the 1980s to fight inflation, something he eventually succeeded in doing. Also back then, there were financial institutions that got into trouble because they had government bonds in their portfolios that had become very much less valuable. Of course, the economy also ran into trouble, and that cooling was exactly what was intended.
So there is nothing new under the sun.
THE MARKET OUTLOOK
Our view is currently (March 20, 2023) negative, in the sense that we have a short signal for the market as a whole.
The side note on the current trend short signal is, of course, that RVM Strategy and RVM Retirement operate independently of our expectations and also of the prevailing short signal.
SUBSCRIBE TO OUR SYSTEMS; MANY HAVE GONE BEFORE YOU!
If you are not yet a follower of RVM Strategy or RVM Retirement, you are welcome.
We do not expect the return picture in the next four years to be much different from the past four years. The systems are largely market neutral and therefore not dependent on a rising market.
Sincerely,
Ruud van Megen